Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.355331 2.736607 3.158542 3.659926 4.239360 4.887876 5.668778
2026-02-01 1.617508 2.088653 2.665543 3.423187 4.391594 5.587707 7.177551
2026-02-08 1.209995 1.703950 2.361016 3.297492 4.596859 6.335400 8.838763
2026-02-15 0.970253 1.470009 2.182816 3.271010 4.888371 7.201955 10.763321
2026-02-22 0.837848 1.352429 2.132009 3.394903 5.386457 8.403695 13.322021
2026-03-01 0.704518 1.203781 2.002180 3.366141 5.633969 9.250246 15.453518
2026-03-08 0.595485 1.071747 1.871865 3.306556 5.809570 9.990683 17.502249
2026-03-15 0.518758 0.979461 1.789384 3.307758 6.076383 10.902307 19.947115
2026-03-22 0.492706 0.972026 1.850441 3.565645 6.821885 12.722376 24.215794
2026-03-29 0.445481 0.916490 1.814576 3.637559 7.233794 13.995136 27.656247
2026-04-05 0.403462 0.863760 1.775056 3.694135 7.619954 15.262691 31.247567
2026-04-12 0.361571 0.804205 1.712668 3.694306 7.891275 16.338222 34.597066
2026-04-19 0.320436 0.741494 1.638522 3.667789 8.122596 17.401597 38.152435
2026-04-26 0.269105 0.648027 1.486143 3.452787 7.928303 17.576603 39.900060
2026-05-03 0.232774 0.582477 1.384392 3.333461 7.924913 18.155013 42.608972
2026-05-10 0.208044 0.540079 1.328211 3.309247 8.132401 19.221793 46.565547
2026-05-17 0.195552 0.525628 1.335107 3.435479 8.710835 21.204732 52.926163
2026-05-24 0.175772 0.489014 1.282411 3.406692 8.908508 22.324948 57.384476
2026-05-31 0.156882 0.451398 1.221236 3.346508 9.018060 23.247112 61.486688
2026-06-07 0.143105 0.425326 1.185745 3.347761 9.285662 24.594982 66.858630
2026-06-14 0.141590 0.433701 1.243250 3.608726 10.280905 27.923531 77.855462
2026-06-21 0.132490 0.418358 1.233422 3.681499 10.774402 30.012038 85.836344
2026-06-28 0.123643 0.402226 1.218898 3.738749 11.233448 32.071095 94.030813